U.S. Rail Traffic Surges 8.7% in Holiday Week Ending July 4, 2026

Published: July 10, 2026

Strong Intermodal Growth and Broad Commodity Gains Offset Coal Weakness; Year-to-Date Volumes Remain Solidly Positive

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) released its weekly rail traffic report on July 8, 2026, covering the week ending July 4. Despite the Independence Day holiday (which fell on a Saturday), U.S. freight railroads delivered an impressive performance, posting an 8.7% year-over-year increase in total traffic. The results underscore continued strength in intermodal volumes and broad-based gains across most carload commodity groups, even as coal traffic continued its structural decline.

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic reached 482,121 carloads and intermodal units, up 8.7% from the same week in 2025. This was a solid showing for a holiday-shortened week, when many shippers and some railroad operations traditionally scale back activity around the July 4th weekend.

Livonia Avon & Lakeville C430 #433, C424 #426, and C425 #425 come around the curve in Henrietta, New York alongside CSX's West Shore line on November 20, 2025. Doug Kroll photo.

Key Weekly Highlights

U.S. Traffic Breakdown (Week Ending July 4, 2026)

U.S. Rail Traffic Summary

Week Ending July 4, 2026 — Source: Association of American Railroads

Metric	This Week	YoY Change
Total Traffic	482,121	+8.7%
Carloads	212,691	+3.7%
Intermodal Units	269,430	+12.9%

Intermodal volume was the clear standout, rising 12.9% year-over-year to 269,430 containers and trailers. This continues a multi-month pattern of robust double-digit intermodal growth that has been a major bright spot for the Class I railroads. Carloads, while more modest at +3.7%, still represented a healthy gain given the holiday timing and the drag from coal.

Commodity Group Performance

Nine of the ten carload commodity groups posted year-over-year increases. The AAR highlighted three of the strongest absolute gainers:

Grain: 21,622 carloads (+2,490 carloads / +13.0%)
Metallic Ores and Metals: 22,262 carloads (+2,134 carloads / +10.6%)
Farm Products excl. Grain, and Food: 17,346 carloads (+1,961 carloads / +12.7%)

These gains in agricultural and industrial commodities point to solid underlying demand in the broader economy and healthy export markets for grain and metals. Other groups that contributed positively included nonmetallic minerals, chemicals, motor vehicles & parts, forest products, petroleum products, and miscellaneous carloads.

The sole decliner was coal, which fell 4,197 carloads (−7.9%) to 48,841 carloads. Coal remains the largest single carload commodity by volume, but it continues to face long-term structural headwinds from the ongoing transition in the U.S. power generation mix, competition from natural gas, and environmental regulations. Even in weeks when electricity demand is seasonally elevated, coal loadings have struggled to post consistent growth in 2026.

U.S. Carloads by Commodity Group – Week Ending July 4, 2026

U.S. Carloads by Commodity Group

Week Ending July 4, 2026 — Source: Association of American Railroads

Commodity Group	Carloads	Notes
Coal	48,841	Only decline (−7.9%)
Chemicals	31,608	Solid contributor
Nonmetallic Minerals	29,533	Strong industrial demand
Metallic Ores and Metals	22,262	+10.6% YoY
Grain	21,622	+13.0% YoY
Farm Products excl. Grain & Food	17,346	+12.7% YoY
Motor Vehicles and Parts	12,620	Positive
Petroleum & Petroleum Products	10,960	Positive
Other / Miscellaneous	9,474	Positive
Forest Products	8,425	Positive
Total Carloads	212,691	+3.7% YoY

Year-to-Date Performance (First 26 Weeks of 2026)

Looking beyond the single holiday week, the first half of 2026 has been constructive for U.S. freight rail:

Carloads: 5,894,302 (+3.2% vs. 2025)
Intermodal units: 7,254,412 (+3.6% vs. 2025)
Total combined U.S. traffic: 13,148,714 carloads and intermodal units (+3.4%)

The consistent positive year-to-date growth in both carloads and intermodal is encouraging. Intermodal has been the primary growth engine throughout 2026, while carload volumes have shown resilience despite the persistent weakness in coal. Gains in grain, chemicals, nonmetallic minerals, and metals have helped offset the coal drag.

North American Overview

Across the nine reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads, total North American rail traffic for the week reached 671,340 carloads and intermodal units, up 8.4% year-over-year.

Breakdown:

Canada

Carloads: 316,737 (+6.3%)
Intermodal: 354,603 (+10.3%)

Canadian railroads reported 88,601 carloads (+8.1%) but saw intermodal slip 4.1% to 70,562 units. Cumulative Canadian volume for the first 26 weeks stood at 4,277,145 carloads, containers, and trailers, up a modest 0.6%.

Mexico

Mexican railroads continued their strong 2026 performance, posting 15,445 carloads (+42.2%) and 14,611 intermodal units (+56.0%). Year-to-date Mexican volume reached 673,753 carloads and intermodal units, up an impressive 9.2%. The surge reflects ongoing nearshoring trends, industrial expansion in northern Mexico, and growing cross-border trade with the United States.

Analysis: A Positive Signal Amid Seasonal Noise

The 8.7% jump in a holiday week is noteworthy. Holiday weeks often produce soft absolute volumes and sometimes softer year-over-year comparisons if the prior-year holiday fell differently. That U.S. railroads still managed a strong double-digit intermodal gain and positive carload growth speaks to underlying demand strength.

Positive Takeaways

Intermodal remains the growth engine of the industry, posting another strong double-digit week. This is a healthy sign for consumer goods, retail inventory replenishment, and overall supply-chain activity.
Agricultural commodities (grain + farm products/food) showed excellent strength, supporting the view that export demand and domestic processing remain robust.
Metals and industrial materials continue to perform well, consistent with manufacturing and construction activity.
Mexico’s explosive growth is a multi-year structural story that benefits U.S. railroads with strong cross-border franchises (especially UP, BNSF, and CPKC).

Challenges / Watch Items

Coal remains a structural headwind. At roughly 23% of U.S. carloads this week, every percentage-point decline in coal has a meaningful impact on total carload growth. Until the industry fully offsets this with other bulk and industrial traffic, overall carload growth will remain constrained.
Canadian intermodal softness this week is worth monitoring, though the YTD picture for Canada remains only mildly positive.
Absolute volumes this week were lower than the preceding non-holiday weeks (as expected), so the sequential trend will be more informative once we get through mid-July.

Overall, the report is net positive. Railroads are benefiting from a still-growing U.S. economy, resilient consumer demand (intermodal), solid agricultural exports, and industrial activity. The holiday week did not interrupt the broader positive trajectory that has characterized the first half of 2026. With the second half of the year typically featuring strong grain harvest movements and continued intermodal seasonality, the industry appears well-positioned for further volume growth—provided the broader economy remains stable and coal does not deteriorate further.

Looking Ahead

The next AAR weekly report (week ending July 11) will be released around July 15–16 and should provide a cleaner post-holiday baseline. Railfans and industry watchers will be watching closely for whether intermodal can sustain double-digit growth and whether grain volumes accelerate into the harvest season. For readers, these weekly numbers remain one of the best real-time barometers of the health of North American freight railroading.

Sources & Notes

Primary source: Association of American Railroads press release and weekly traffic report for the week ending July 4, 2026 (released July 8, 2026). Additional context drawn from AAR social media summaries and historical weekly trends. Absolute commodity figures derived from the detailed traffic PDF. Year-over-year percentage changes for grain, metallic ores & metals, and farm products provided via AAR communications.

Note: The week ending July 4, 2026 included the Independence Day holiday (Saturday). Comparisons are to the corresponding week in 2025. U.S. figures exclude U.S. operations of CPKC, CN, and GMXT as per standard AAR reporting conventions.

Full AAR report: https://www.aar.org/news/aar-reports-weekly-rail-traffic-for-the-week-ending-july-4-2026/